LA's Mayoral Debate Heats Up: Public Safety Drives the Conversation; Business Growth in LA is Down; State Tax Revenues Are Up; Metro Needs Bus Drivers! And more...
Quote of the Week
"Our planet's wetlands (mangroves forests, estuaries, marshes, etc.) can absorb 5X more carbon than the forests on the land."
Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, Co-founder Urban Ocean Lab, Co-founder The All We Can Save Project, & Co-creator How to Save a Planet
Big Picture
Loyola Marymount University released its public opinion survey on the City of LA's Mayoral Race. The chart below highlights the overall current standings and further below I pulled the top two leaders per category.
A few things for me stood out. Karen Bass has great support from Angelenos 45+ years old and older, while Kevin de León has support from those younger than 44 years old. Union support leans slightly in Karen's favor.
The income category had the least number of undecideds. Kevin de León leads the categories of less than a High School education, lived here for less than five years and has 1+ children. Karen has strong support for those Angelenos who have lived here 6 years plus.
Voters by Category (top two listed and large majority are still undecided)
English: Karen Bass (17.6) then Kevin de León (11.0)
Spanish: Kevin de León (29.1) then Joe Buscaino (8.5)
Korean: Mike Feuer (11.7) then Karen Bass (10.6)
Black: Karen Bass (38.7) then Kevin de León (5) and Mike Feuer (5)
Asian: Karen Bass (14.3) then Kevin de León (9.7)
White: Karen Bass (18.2) then Joe Buscaino (12.1)
Latina/o: Kevin de León (16.5) then Mike Feuer (7.2)
Ages 18-29: Kevin de León (16) then Karen Bass (11.9)
Ages 30-44: Kevin de León (15.9) then Mike Feuer (10.5)
Ages 45-64: Karen Bass (23.1) then Rick Caruso (8.8)
Ages 65+: Karen Bass (19.8) then Kevin de León (7.7)
Rent home: Karen Bass (19.6) then Kevin de León (11)
Own home: Kevin de León (13.1) then Karen Bass (12.9)
Union member household: Karen Bass (16.7) then Kevin de León (11)
Not a union member household: Karen Bass (14.3) then Kevin de León (11.5)
No Children: Karen Bass (19.9) then Kevin de León (9.9)
1 or more children: Kevin de León (15.4) then Karen Bass and Joe Buscaino (11.5)
Liberal: Karen Bass (22.9) then Kevin de León (15.6)
Moderate: Karen Bass (13.5) then Kevin de León (10.6)
Conservative: Rick Caruso (14.7) then Kevin de León (8.1)
Less than High School: Kevin de León (15.1) then Mel Wilson (5.9)
High/tech school graduate: Karen Bass (11.9) then Kevin de León (11.3)
College degree: Karen Bass (19.4) then Kevin de León (12.5)
Graduate degree: Karen Bass (19.4) then Joe Buscaino (14.2)
Under $40K$: Karen Bass (18.7) then Kevin de León (11.6)
40K-<$69K: Karen Bass (13.6) then Kevin de León (11.1)
$70K-<$99K: Karen Bass (13.4) then Kevin de León (13.1)
$100K-<$149K: Kevin de León (17.3) then Karen Bass (15.5)
$150K+: Karen Bass (18.8) then Rick Caruso (13.7)
Man: Kevin de León (14.2) then Karen Bass (12.3)
Women: Karen Bass (18.4) then Kevin de León (10.4)
Lived here 5 years or less: Kevin de León (21.3) then Rick Caruso (9.1)
Lived here 6-15years: Karen Bass (19.6) then Kevin de León (12.7)
Lived here 16-25years: Karen Bass (14.6) then Kevin de León (11.3)
Lived here 26+years: Karen Bass (12.8) then Kevin de León (11.6)
LA Mayoral Debate
Last night I attended the Mayoral debate hosted by the L.A. Times, FOX 11’s and the Dornsife Center for the Political Future.
The super majority of the debate focused on the biggest challenges LA faces - homelessness, public safety and housing. Not too much on the economy & jobs. Though some remarks referenced it.
In the next week I will be thinking through what they said as candidates and writing some more of my thoughts on putting things into better context.
For now here is some more enlightening background on the issue of public safety.
David Leonhardt with the NYT had a great piece this morning asking What explains the crime wave? Some experts point to several plausible partial explanations, including:
Social isolation and frustration caused by the pandemic.
A sense of lawlessness stemming from police violence (like the murder of George Floyd). Police officers’ timidity in response to recent criticism of them.
And a rise in gun sales during the pandemic.
Yet crime has remained fairly steady in Britain, Canada, France, Japan and elsewhere.
Criminologists and historians who have studied past crime waves — like Gary LaFree, Richard Rosenfeld and Randolph Roth — point out that they often occur when:
People are feeling frustrated with society, government and their fellow citizens. This frustration can feed a breakdown in societal norms and a rise in what the sociologist Émile Durkheim called “anomie.”
Roth argues that crime tends to increase if people lose trust in society’s institutions and basic fairness. When empathy for other citizens — or “fellow feeling,” as Roth and others call it — declines and anomie rises, crime also rises. The American crime increases of the 1960s and ’70s were a good example, criminologists say.
But social alienation makes some people more willing to break the rules and act violently. A broader sense of disorder can create a so-called moral holiday.
Recent polling:
Americans are feeling frustrated with their government, their economy and their fellow citizens. Nearly 80 percent are dissatisfied with the country’s direction, according to Gallup.
Polls also show an alarming degree of skepticism about democracy and openness to political violence.
Along with these signs of alienation, a wide range of behavior has deteriorated. Alcohol abuse and drug overdoses have increased. Americans’ blood pressure is up, and measures of mental health are down. Vehicle crashes have surged.
Where do we go from here:
The first truth: Cops spend approximately 80 percent of their time helping vulnerable people who are in tough situations at pivotal moments. From checking on a mother with children who wants to feel safe, to helping an elderly person with dementia find his way home, to diverting a teen engaging in risky behaviors like cutting school or flirting with petty crimes, to staging an intervention with a citizen suffering a dangerous mental health breakdown, most policing involves providing service to vulnerable people in the community.
The balance of a police officer’s time: Approximately 20 percent, is spent responding to an incident where some form of force or citizen detainment may be needed. And the vast majority of police officers work a lifetime in policing and retire without ever firing a bullet.
Ugly truth: According to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, more than 1,000 people are killed by police each year — and that’s just the documented cases. The majority of these killings are of white people, but down the line, from stop and frisk too detainment to murder, Black people in America are suffering disproportionately at the hands of police.
I think everyone can agree that there is more to the headline that a magical number of 10,000 LAPD officers will solve LA's crime problem.
Kickstarting LA's Business Community
Crosstown data shows that there are signs that the city has lagged the state and the nation in economic recovery.
National trend: 5.4M new business applications were filed in 2021, surpassing the 4.4 million in 2020. The state of CA similarly saw a record number of new business applications.
City of LA: There were 28,020 new business starts in LA in 2021, a 14% decrease from the previous year, and a 20% drop from 34,831 new businesses in 2019. The numbers have been falling since peaking at 38,396 new business registrations in 2018, and the 2021 figure marks the lowest annual tally since 2013.
Good news: Overall business tax revenues have continued to rise over the past five years.
What needs to change: Regulatory fees and taxes, and a not very responsive public bureaucracy.
Local trends: New business starts for limited service restaurants (435), which encompasses drive-thrus, pizzerias and fast food establishments. There were also record high start figures in categories including women’s clothing stores (167), personal care services such as massage parlors and beauticians, and jewelry stores (106).
Why Do Businesses Set Up Shop Outside LA City Limits: Exhibit A
I found a blog post The apparel industry is tearing up looming regulations that highlights the recent move by the Los Angeles City Council to impose a whole new system to regulate the disposal of unused textiles.
Issue: The board on February 16 ordered employees to draft a resolution to support the Los Angeles Department of Sanitation’s recommendations calling for a statewide ban on textile and apparel companies from disposing of scrap. They want the industry to fund a merchandise take-back, resale or donation system to be designed and operated by government approved organizations.
Cost: The cost is unknown, but it will likely be more expensive than what companies like Lafayette are doing now to repurpose or recycle their scraps.
Big takeaway: The owner of a textile factory that is already committed to processing organic or recycled yarns, using low-impact dyestuffs, and reusing or recycling defective fabric rather than throwing it in the garbage, mentioned that he believes that local lawmakers “have no real contact with our industry.” And owners wish elected officials and regulators would take time to talk to people in the industry to understand how recycling and disposal work now and how the new system could be so costly and disruptive to the important clothing industry in Los Angeles.
Who Wants to Be A Bus Operator?
Jessica Meaney wrote about The Metro Bus Operator Crisis highlighting that Metro has been losing more operators each month than it can hire. SEE CHART
Shortage: Metro is currently short almost 600 bus operators. Based on the data we have, the best month Metro had in hiring new operators was April 2021, with 43 new people hired, but they haven’t hit that level since.
Big impacts: Service cancellations were concentrated in some of the neighborhoods that could least afford them - out of 15 bus lines which reported a 25% or greater cancellation rate in January, Fung says that 13 of them serve South Los Angeles. And, that rate means that one out of every four buses on a line would be canceled every day for the entire month. The Vermont Rapid Line, one of the few Rapid lines remaining serving one of the county’s busiest transit corridors, experienced a cancellation rate of nearly four in 10 buses – 40%!
Call to action: It is critical that all Metro leaders – Board and staff – recognize this crisis, and respond with significant changes to restructure the job and the working environment, analyze key takeaways that come up from current operators to inform changes to the new contract, and speed up and streamline the path to full time employment. It is particularly important to get input from current bus operators – particularly ones with 1-3 years of service. They can illuminate why so few people want to be a Metro Bus Operator.
Is Meth Fueling Homelessness in LA?
A controversial new book by former L.A. Times reporter Sam Quinones claims that a cheap and potent form of Mexican meth is causing a surge of deaths and homelessness in Los Angeles.
Are we doing enough to address the city’s drug problem? And why aren’t more people paying attention?
Some alarming stats on drugs and mental health in our communities:
Opioid-related overdoses among California’s 15- to 19-year-olds nearly tripled between 2019 and 2020, according to a CalMatters analysis of state data.
Suicide rates among Black youth doubled between 2014 and 2020.
Kids’ mental health emergency room visits have spiked dramatically during the pandemic.
One in 330 California children has lost a parent or caregiver to the pandemic so far.
And on top of all this, California is facing a shortage of mental health providers.
CA's State Government is Flush With So Much Cash!
Bloomberg reports that California Has So Much Cash, Wall Street Wants an Early Payback.
$: The state’s proposed $213 billion budget is bolstered by a $45.7 billion surplus.
Why: The state’s progressive tax system rakes in more revenue when the income of its highest earners rises. SEE CHART
Who wants what: Underwriters suggest state use surplus to pay off debt early
Paying off debt early may help circumvent constitutional limit, while the State Treasurer said there are no plans to defease debt with cash.
Two paths: One would give CA even more capacity to sell new bonds. And two Governor Gavin Newsom already has proposed a way to avoid incurring new debt by paying $500 million to complete four capital projects instead of selling taxable municipal bonds. That would save the state $350 million in financing costs.
Leadership in the Community
In November of 2021, Biocom California launched GrowLABio to focus on eliminating the barriers to growing our life sciences “mega-cluster."
Their vision is to turn the greater LA region into the most admired, inter- and multi-disciplinary life science hub in the world — a model for all future life science hubs — to the economic benefit of all of our diverse communities.
This profound industry growth has created an important path from research lab to existing life sciences campuses, with a record-setting $2B in NIH grants.
However, this success has also presented our biggest challenge and greatest opportunity. The LA region has only a 1.5% vacancy rate in new wet lab space — the lowest vacancy rate in the nation, according to Cushman and Wakefield.
As an action-oriented and outcome-focused group, GrowLABio’s priorities of 2022 are to:
Build a cohesive regional strategy for the development of new bioscience campuses including creation of a comprehensive playbook for campus development, outlining appropriate zoning, entitlements, utility needs, special space requirements, etc.
Amplify the value of the life science industry to the region’s economy and real estate portfolio for state and local elected officials and city development decision-makers
Create a market ‘gap’ and needs analysis
Develop an inventory, map or database of assets – real, proposed, and potential; and
Create more lab space and life sciences jobs — to accelerate the pathway from NIH grant to research lab to incubator to life sciences campus to patient