Los Angeles Cannot Work if Angelenos Don't Work
Quote of the Week
"Progress is a nice word. But change is its motivator. And change has its enemies."
Robert F. Kennedy
The Big Picture - Los Angeles Doesn't Work if Angelenos Don't Work
Recent numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show some good news for Los Angeles. LA County's unemployment rate as of December 2021 is 6.2% and LA City's rate is 6.4%.
These rates have come down by almost half since December 2020.
The BLS graph below shows where the jobs are coming back the most. The leader, which should not come as a surprise, was leisure and hospitality, which saw a 35.9 percent increase of jobs from Dec. 2019 to Dec. 2020.
The not so good news is the fact that the City of LA's unemployment rate of 6.4 percent continues to exceed that of the rest of the region, state and other leading cities in the US.
Part of the challenge has been the outsized impact COVID has had on LA's economy. During the height of the pandemic the number of jobs at risk in LA County was ~40%, which is ~1.8 million jobs. Workers with annual wages of less than $25k were the most affected with 73% of jobs being at risk.
This was the highest in the state and nearly 3x the second largest region, which was Orange County.
The chart below, put together by the City Controller's office, narrows in on the significant impact COVID had on the City's top industries.
A snapshot in July 2020 shows the significant jobs loses in food services, arts, entertainment and recreation, information jobs, and educational services, to name a few.
The future of LA depends on the growth of its economy, in a more equitable way, and the creation of good paying jobs. And that depends on a skilled and educated population of working age residents.
In order for the City (and County) to continue to drive down its unemployment rate(s), leaders in the public and private sector must continue to find ways to bring more Angelenos into the workforce, develop a larger pool of local skilled workers or attract more skilled-workers to the region.
The data below shows the challenges the City currently faces to achieve this:
Fewer Jobs: LA's current jobs level - 1,750,400 - is now below what it was a decade ago, having lost more than 200,000 jobs in the past two year
Shrinking Labor Force: it has decreased by 34,100 (Feb. 2019-Dec. 2021)
Employed workforce decreased by 69,800 since Feb. 2019
The number of unemployed workers increased by 35,600 since Feb. 2019
LA's Working age population has declined by 10,500 (Since 2017)
An increasing number of low-skilled workers are leaving the workforce and one-quarter of Angelenos age 25 and older have less than a high-school degree.
A large decline in immigrant and nonimmigrant visa arrivals resulted in zero growth in working-age foreign-born people in the United States. (The City's population is 38% foreign born)
Labor force participation rate has remained below 64%. Down from a high of 67% (Since 2017)
And the larger trends for the US (see graph below) illustrate just how challenging it will be for the nation, and LA, to get back on track.
And the so-called Great Resignation is not helping.
Even as millions of great jobs opportunities, with good pay remain open throughout the region and country, fewer people are working or seeking work, as illustrated by the chart below.
Data shows that he majority of workers leaving the labor force tend to be the least skilled and 55 years old and older. A silver lining is the fact that those ages 16 to 24 want a job.
It is understandable that so many workers have reassessed their life following COVD and want to have more time to take care of family or retire early or just take time for theme selves, but where does that leave LA in making sure its economy can generate the growth it needs to provide the quality of life we have all come to enjoy.
There are some great questions here to ask any candidate who seek to represent Angelenos in the upcoming election. Because getting these workers back is going to be a big challenge.
It won't be easy and it won't happen overnight. But we must continue to try.
Skilled Workers Are More Inclined to Work
A recent CA Workforce Investment Board report shows that there is a strong correlation between labor participation and educational attainment.
Data shows:
Less educated groups participated in the labor force at a lower rate than groups with more education.
The labor force participation rate among Californians age 25 and older who did not complete high school was just 51.0 percent in October 2019 compared to 72.9 percent among those who had a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Labor force participation fell across educational attainment groups from October 2010 through October 2016. However, it increased among high school graduates and associate degree holders over the three years ending in October 2019 and was little changed among those with a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Labor force participation continued to decrease among those who had attended some college but had not earned a degree and those who had not completed high school over the October 2016 - October 2019 period.
Expo TOD Gets A Win
In 2018 the LA City Council approved The Exposition Corridor Transit Neighborhood Plan (see map) to develop more affordable housing in areas within walking distance of five Metro Expo Line stations.
Opposition has existed since day one with local Councilmember Koretz advocating, and securing, a smaller footprint and the a subsequent lawsuit filed by local activists to stop the plan.
LA City secured a recent victory in favor of the plan, which will allow areas within a half-mile of Bundy, Sepulveda, Westwood, Palms and Culver City stations the following rights:
Taller, mixed-use buildings on major streets
Housing and offices to be built in industrial areas
Apartments in the “Bundy Triangle” south of the Bundy station, which is currently about 200 single-family homes
Incentives for affordable housing
New buildings to un-bundle parking from housing
City of Los Angeles Prop HHH Progress Report
Proposition HHH (2016) provides funds for the development of supportive housing for homeless individuals and families throughout the city.
The program provides an average HHH loan commitment of $132,000 per unit (apartment); developers must combine HHH loans with other financial resources to pay for the total development costs.
The latest data dashboard shows the progress made, the different stages of the housing development, the location, and financing details for each each housing development awarded HHH loans.
Key data points:
The number of people that may be housed is between 9K~14K
104 of 125 projects are TOD
Average HHH per unit commitment is $131,474
Average total development cost per unit is $582,638
Community Leadership
"Arts Education on the Ground Today: Challenges and Solutions"
Here is a great opportunity to talk with CBMArts Arts Management alumni who are leading forward-thinking arts education programs in Southern California.
Friday, February 18 from 11:00am - 12:00pm PST
